Published in the San Diego Union-Tribune on Friday, January 28, 2011
At the dawn of a new decade, California is about to launch an unprecedented experiment. In the coming year, a commission of citizens – not the Legislature – will redraw the state’s political map. There is a great deal at stake in San Diego.
California’s new Citizens Redistricting Commission will redraw the boundaries of the five congressional seats, four state Senate seats and eight Assembly seats representing residents of San Diego County.
Independently, a commission of San Diego city residents will create new City Council districts and for the first time apportion the city’s population across not eight districts, but nine.
And the five members of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors ... well, they still draw their own districts, a textbook case in the power of incumbency.
Aggregate population numbers from the 2010 Census, recently published by the U.S. Census Bureau, will provide the basis for redistricting at all levels. But the true depth of the challenge facing California will become evident in the coming months when the release of data detailing racial and ethnic demographics will confirm that our state is in the midst of an epic transformation.
Ten years ago, the 2000 Census counted California’s Hispanic population as 32 percent of the total. The most recent estimate – based on cumulative data gathered across five years, between 2005 and 2009, by the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey – puts this figure at 36 percent. Look for this number to be even larger when the 2010 results are released, perhaps as high as 40 percent.
Even more striking is the growth in the population of Californians who claim Mexican ancestry. In the 2000 Census, one in four Californians (25 percent) did so. The Census Bureau’s estimate for the five-year period of 2005 to 2009 was 30 percent. The 2010 Census is almost sure to show that one in three Californians trace their ancestry to Mexico.
San Diego County’s demographic profile differs from the state’s, but only to a small degree. If expectations hold, San Diego will be portrayed by the 2010 Census as slightly less Hispanic than California, but equally “Mexican” because the vast preponderance of the county’s Hispanic residents claim Mexican ancestry.
San Diego’s Asian and Pacific Islander population will prove roughly proportional to the state’s – between 10 percent and 12 percent of each total. When San Diego’s small, but historic African-American and indigenous populations are counted, along with a growing population of refugees (especially from Africa and the Middle East), San Diego will be portrayed by the 2010 Census as a county in which “minorities” collectively comprise a majority of the population.
I believe the fundamental challenge facing San Diegans in the coming decade is that of reshaping our local political culture to more closely match this changing demographic profile.
While ethnic minority representation in elected office is just one measure of democratic vitality, it is suggestive of how far we have to go. Of the top San Diego County elected offices listed in the first paragraphs of this commentary, 25 of 31 (81 percent) are occupied by persons from a racial/ethnic background (white) that is now in the numerical minority.
In the coming decade, San Diegans must choose what to make of this democratic disconnect.
Some people will surely greet the release of 2010 data with alarm. They will call on San Diegans to fight against this tide of history, to do everything in our power to prevent all things Mexican from spilling over into the United States.
If we choose this path, we are destined to fail because the project of fear and separation is based on a faulty premise – that those of Mexican descent somehow are not part of us. Alternately, we can acknowledge that immigrants from Mexico and their descendants (and from other nations, too) have always played a prominent role in our region, and we can embrace that they are destined to do so in increasing measure.
If we choose this latter path, we just might discover who we really are as a people, who in fact we have always been. We might also discover how, together, we can create a democracy that is truly of, by and for all the people of San Diego.
Fanestil is executive director of the Foundation for Change, an organization committed to progressive changes in the San Diego/Tijuana region. He was involved in the funding and training of 300 leaders from San Diego’s immigrant communities for the work of census outreach.
At the dawn of a new decade, California is about to launch an unprecedented experiment. In the coming year, a commission of citizens – not the Legislature – will redraw the state’s political map. There is a great deal at stake in San Diego.
California’s new Citizens Redistricting Commission will redraw the boundaries of the five congressional seats, four state Senate seats and eight Assembly seats representing residents of San Diego County.
Independently, a commission of San Diego city residents will create new City Council districts and for the first time apportion the city’s population across not eight districts, but nine.
And the five members of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors ... well, they still draw their own districts, a textbook case in the power of incumbency.
Aggregate population numbers from the 2010 Census, recently published by the U.S. Census Bureau, will provide the basis for redistricting at all levels. But the true depth of the challenge facing California will become evident in the coming months when the release of data detailing racial and ethnic demographics will confirm that our state is in the midst of an epic transformation.
Ten years ago, the 2000 Census counted California’s Hispanic population as 32 percent of the total. The most recent estimate – based on cumulative data gathered across five years, between 2005 and 2009, by the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey – puts this figure at 36 percent. Look for this number to be even larger when the 2010 results are released, perhaps as high as 40 percent.
Even more striking is the growth in the population of Californians who claim Mexican ancestry. In the 2000 Census, one in four Californians (25 percent) did so. The Census Bureau’s estimate for the five-year period of 2005 to 2009 was 30 percent. The 2010 Census is almost sure to show that one in three Californians trace their ancestry to Mexico.
San Diego County’s demographic profile differs from the state’s, but only to a small degree. If expectations hold, San Diego will be portrayed by the 2010 Census as slightly less Hispanic than California, but equally “Mexican” because the vast preponderance of the county’s Hispanic residents claim Mexican ancestry.
San Diego’s Asian and Pacific Islander population will prove roughly proportional to the state’s – between 10 percent and 12 percent of each total. When San Diego’s small, but historic African-American and indigenous populations are counted, along with a growing population of refugees (especially from Africa and the Middle East), San Diego will be portrayed by the 2010 Census as a county in which “minorities” collectively comprise a majority of the population.
I believe the fundamental challenge facing San Diegans in the coming decade is that of reshaping our local political culture to more closely match this changing demographic profile.
While ethnic minority representation in elected office is just one measure of democratic vitality, it is suggestive of how far we have to go. Of the top San Diego County elected offices listed in the first paragraphs of this commentary, 25 of 31 (81 percent) are occupied by persons from a racial/ethnic background (white) that is now in the numerical minority.
In the coming decade, San Diegans must choose what to make of this democratic disconnect.
Some people will surely greet the release of 2010 data with alarm. They will call on San Diegans to fight against this tide of history, to do everything in our power to prevent all things Mexican from spilling over into the United States.
If we choose this path, we are destined to fail because the project of fear and separation is based on a faulty premise – that those of Mexican descent somehow are not part of us. Alternately, we can acknowledge that immigrants from Mexico and their descendants (and from other nations, too) have always played a prominent role in our region, and we can embrace that they are destined to do so in increasing measure.
If we choose this latter path, we just might discover who we really are as a people, who in fact we have always been. We might also discover how, together, we can create a democracy that is truly of, by and for all the people of San Diego.
Fanestil is executive director of the Foundation for Change, an organization committed to progressive changes in the San Diego/Tijuana region. He was involved in the funding and training of 300 leaders from San Diego’s immigrant communities for the work of census outreach.
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